Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Turkey 1560 vs Paraguay 1490 +0.24 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Turkey). Expected goals: Turkey 1.42, Paraguay 1.18. Model confidence 43%.
The takeaway
Turkey hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Turkey impose control or Paraguay can frustrate them.