Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Tunisia 1473 vs Japan 1644 -0.60 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Tunisia). Expected goals: Tunisia 1, Japan 1.6. Model confidence 51%.
The takeaway
Japan hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Japan impose control or Tunisia can frustrate them.