Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Sweden 1543 vs Tunisia 1473 +0.24 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Sweden). Expected goals: Sweden 1.42, Tunisia 1.18. Model confidence 43%.
The takeaway
Sweden hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Sweden impose control or Tunisia can frustrate them.