Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Spain 1853 vs Cape Verde 1390 +1.62 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Spain). Expected goals: Spain 2.11, Cape Verde 0.49. Model confidence 75%.
The takeaway
Spain hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Spain impose control or Cape Verde can frustrate them.