Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Portugal 1761 vs DR Congo 1450 +1.09 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Portugal). Expected goals: Portugal 1.84, DR Congo 0.76. Model confidence 63%.
The takeaway
Portugal hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Portugal impose control or DR Congo can frustrate them.