Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
New Zealand 1180 vs Egypt 1518 -1.18 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours New Zealand). Expected goals: New Zealand 0.71, Egypt 1.89. Model confidence 66%.
The takeaway
Egypt hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Egypt impose control or New Zealand can frustrate them.