Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Netherlands 1746 vs Sweden 1543 +0.71 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Netherlands). Expected goals: Netherlands 1.66, Sweden 0.94. Model confidence 54%.
The takeaway
Netherlands hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Netherlands impose control or Sweden can frustrate them.