Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Netherlands 1746 vs Japan 1644 +0.36 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Netherlands). Expected goals: Netherlands 1.48, Japan 1.12. Model confidence 45%.
The takeaway
Netherlands hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Netherlands impose control or Japan can frustrate them.