Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Mexico 1652 vs South Africa 1445 +0.72 xG - Home advantage
Mexico at home +0.40 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Mexico). Expected goals: Mexico 1.86, South Africa 0.74. Model confidence 64%.
The takeaway
Mexico hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Mexico impose control or South Africa can frustrate them.