Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Ivory Coast 1487 vs Ecuador 1556 -0.24 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Ivory Coast). Expected goals: Ivory Coast 1.18, Ecuador 1.42. Model confidence 43%.
The takeaway
Ecuador hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Ecuador impose control or Ivory Coast can frustrate them.