Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Iraq 1420 vs Norway 1494 -0.26 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Iraq). Expected goals: Iraq 1.17, Norway 1.43. Model confidence 43%.
The takeaway
Norway hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Norway impose control or Iraq can frustrate them.