Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Iran 1638 vs New Zealand 1180 +1.60 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Iran). Expected goals: Iran 2.1, New Zealand 0.5. Model confidence 75%.
The takeaway
Iran hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Iran impose control or New Zealand can frustrate them.