Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Haiti 1320 vs Scotland 1500 -0.63 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Haiti). Expected goals: Haiti 0.99, Scotland 1.62. Model confidence 52%.
The takeaway
Scotland hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Scotland impose control or Haiti can frustrate them.