Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Germany 1716 vs Curaçao 1370 +1.21 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Germany). Expected goals: Germany 1.91, Curaçao 0.69. Model confidence 66%.
The takeaway
Germany hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Germany impose control or Curaçao can frustrate them.