Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
France 1859 vs Senegal 1645 +0.75 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours France). Expected goals: France 1.67, Senegal 0.93. Model confidence 55%.
The takeaway
France hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether France impose control or Senegal can frustrate them.