Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
England 1819 vs Croatia 1715 +0.36 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours England). Expected goals: England 1.48, Croatia 1.12. Model confidence 46%.
The takeaway
England hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether England impose control or Croatia can frustrate them.