Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Canada 1543 vs Qatar 1438 +0.37 xG - Home advantage
Canada at home +0.40 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Canada). Expected goals: Canada 1.68, Qatar 0.92. Model confidence 56%.
The takeaway
Canada hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Canada impose control or Qatar can frustrate them.