Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Canada 1543 vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 1465 +0.27 xG - Home advantage
Canada at home +0.40 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Canada). Expected goals: Canada 1.64, Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.96. Model confidence 53%.
The takeaway
Canada hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Canada impose control or Bosnia & Herzegovina can frustrate them.