Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Belgium 1736 vs Iran 1638 +0.34 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Belgium). Expected goals: Belgium 1.47, Iran 1.13. Model confidence 45%.
The takeaway
Belgium hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Belgium impose control or Iran can frustrate them.