Why — the key factors
- FIFA ranking
Belgium 1736 vs Egypt 1518 +0.76 xG
Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Belgium). Expected goals: Belgium 1.68, Egypt 0.92. Model confidence 55%.
The takeaway
Belgium hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Belgium impose control or Egypt can frustrate them.