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Group D · World Cup 2026

AustraliavsTurkey

Sun, Jun 14 · 4:00 AM UTC · Vancouver

⚠ 33% upset probability

Verdict: Turkey are favoured at 40%.

Most likely scoreline: 1–1

Australia33%
Draw26%
Turkey40%

Each factor is a contribution to expected-goal supremacy (positive favours Australia). Expected goals: Australia 1.22, Turkey 1.38. Model confidence 40%.

Turkey hold the edge, but tournament football turns on fine margins. Watch the opening 20 minutes for whether Turkey impose control or Australia can frustrate them.

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